The U.S. Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion from private investors this quarter and $800 billion in the first three months of 2027, figures that set the stage for Wednesday’s closely watched announcement on how it will spread that borrowing across bills, notes and bonds.
The fourth-quarter estimate, released Monday, is $10 billion lower than Treasury projected in August, thanks to a larger-than-expected cash cushion at the start of October. Stripping out that benefit, underlying borrowing needs are $24 billion higher than forecast, reflecting weaker projected net cash flows. The projection assumes the government ends December with $850 billion in cash.
A heavier first quarter
For January through March, Treasury projected $800 billion of borrowing and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $1 trillion. In the July-to-September quarter it borrowed $742 billion, slightly more than the $739 billion it had estimated, and finished September with $984 billion in cash.
The estimates follow a record week of debt sales and come as long-term yields remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Monday at about 4.91%.
What to watch Wednesday
Treasury will release its refunding details at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 4. In August it said it continues to evaluate possible future changes to coupon and floating-rate auction sizes, wording that fed speculation it could eventually trim longer-dated sales and rely more on bills and shorter notes. Analysts see the 20- and 30-year auctions as the likeliest candidates for cuts, with any increases concentrated in two- to seven-year notes. Investors will also look for changes to Treasury’s buyback program, which it recently expanded to as much as $6 billion per longer-dated operation.
